metafrantic (metafrantic) wrote in baseballblog,

A few fantasy notes

First a quick look at my recent trades:

#1 - gave Utley, Marcum and Lilly and got Webb, Haren and Street

Overall, pretty happy with this. Utley slumped pretty badly; he's doing all right now but is nowhere near that pace that he was on. Marcum is still on the DL. So far Lilly's the best player my opponent got, with 4 wins and no losses.

Webb's been frighteningly erratic; his hit rate is WAY up. Street's been okay, recording 4 Saves, 1 blown save and 1 loss, with decent peripherals. But Haren has been spectacular; in 6 starts he's got a 1.76 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, with 38 K in 41 IP. He's only 2-1, thanks to terrible run support; take out the 1 game the Diamondbacks scored 11, and Haren got 15 Runs of support TOTAL in the other five games.

#2 - gave Kazmir, Franklin and Zumaya and got Tulowitzki and Harang

I suppose I'm ok with this one too - neither of us have made out too well yet. I don't mind losing Kazmir - in his 3 starts he's been increasingly bad, not getting through 6 innings in any of them. 16 H and 8 BB in 15 2/3 IP isn't good. Ryan Franklin's been shaky but is still apparently the closer. And the guy actually dropped Zumaya from his team - Zumaya's been bad, but Todd Jones has been worse, so Zumaya might get a shot at closing duties. (Of course, Tigers manager Jim Leyland said he was considering trying Zumaya as a starter. That's absurd, and I don't think it'll take.) I may end up picking up Zumaya again.

On my side, Harang's first start for me was bad, but his most recent was a lot more promising; 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 ER, 8 K. Of course, he got no run support and got a ND. Tulowitzki's infuriated me, though; he had turned around was was hitting much better - and then he got pissed about being pulled from a game and slammed a bat on the ground. It splintered and cut his hand, he needed stitches and is back on the DL. He better be a fucking monster when he gets back.


So now my team looks like this:

C Geovany Soto (ChC - C)
1B Mark Teixeira (Atl - 1B)
2B Placido Polanco (Det - 2B)
SS Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,SS, 3B)
3B Adrián Béltre (Sea - 3B)
OF Adam Dunn (Cin - OF)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)
OF Joey Votto (Cin - 1B,OF)
Util Chris Davis (Tex - 1B)
BN Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)
BN Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)

DL Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)

SP Brandon Webb (Ari - SP)
SP Dan Haren (Ari - SP)
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP)
SP Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP)
SP Ryan Dempster (ChC - SP)
SP Aaron Harang (Cin - SP)
SP Edinson Volquez (Cin - SP)
RP Joe Nathan (Min - RP)
RP Huston Street (Oak - RP)
RP Rafael Soriano (Atl - RP) (DL)

DL Troy Percival (TB - RP)

I've been hit badly by injuries. Not only Tulowitzki: Percival came off the DL and went back a couple weeks later. Uggla's been out a week with a twisted ankle; Zambrano was out for a couple weeks, as was Matsuzaka; and Soriano MIGHT return shortly, but I'm not holding my breath; if he has another setback, I'm dropping him.

I picked up Davis because he'd been raking at AAA and raked in his first few ML games; of course, as soon as I got him he fell apart. I'll probably drop him within a week. I picked up Polanco to take Uggla's spot temporarily, but he's hitting so well for average I might end up using my UTIL slot for him. Zambrano's first start back was solid, so I was relieved about that.

New development; My hitting's been so terrible, especially my OF, that I just agreed to trade some of my SP depth for a hitter. A guy offered me Vladimir Guerrero for Haren, or barring that "Any of the Stud SP". I countered with Vlad for Volquez, and he accepted.

Vladimir Guerrero has been an elite hitter for years; He was drafted 23rd overall in my league (round 2). He had an average April and a horrible May, which dropped his value a lot. However, Vlad's had a monster June, hitting .375/.427/.638/1.064 with 6 HR in 80 AB. Plus, in his career Vlad's been much better in the second half of the season. I'm pretty confident that he should at least approach his career averages (.323/.389/.575/.964) in the second half.

Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez wasn't drafted at all, and in fact I picked him up as a free agent on April 5. He has been an absolute gem, and is the favorite to start the All-Star game for the NL. However, he's tailed off badly recently; in his last 5 starts he's got a 4.55 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, with only 22 K in 29 2/3 IP (a significant drop). He's never thrown more than 34 ML innings in a season, but he's already up to 104, and Reds manager Dusty Baker is known to overuse his young pitchers. I wouldn't be surprised if Volquez suffers some arm fatigue during the second half, and misses some starts. His recent struggles may be a sign of that already.


With an OF of Guerrero/Dunn/Ellsbury, I'm a lot more confident. Votto and Alex Gordon will probably share the UTIL slot until Uggla returns; then I'm not sure what I'll do since I want Polanco's BA. Votto and Gordon may end up riding the bench until they hit hot streaks.

I still have a very solid rotation of Webb/Haren/Zambrano/Matsuzaka/Dempster/Harang. I may look to trade Haren soon: his value is sky-high (currently ranked 14th overall in yahoo leagues), but he's always tailed off after the All-Star Break - time to sell high.

My RP is very thin right now; not too long ago I had Nathan, Street, Percival, Franklin, Soriano and Zumaya. But I traded Franklin and Zumaya and Percival and Soriano are on the DL, leaving me Nathan and Street. That's a good duo, but I like having more than 2 guys to get me Saves. Soriano supposedly will be back soon, but he might have lost his Closer job to Mike Gonzalez. If it looks like he'll just be doing 7th or 8th inning duties, I'll probably drop him. Hopefully Percival will return right after the All-Star break; Nathan/Street/Percival is a pretty good trio.

Oh, and one more thing: in my league, each manager has a maximum of 45 Adds for the year (that's picking players up off of Free Agency/Waivers). Now, nearing the end of Week 14 (out of 22), most of the other managers have used at least 20 moves, some have used as many as 28. I've only used 12. I could use 2 per week for the rest of our regular season, and still have 17 moves left for the 4 weeks of the playoffs.


Once the All-Star voting is announced, expect a rant about how fan voting is the worst possible way to pick All-Stars.
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